Markets often pause on the verge of a breakout, building tension as traders wait for confirmation that can trigger either an explosive rally or a sharp reversal. XRP is currently in that position.
Recent price action has stalled beneath a critical ceiling, while technical indicators are flashing signals that suggest caution. The next moves will determine whether XRP can finally clear resistance or if it will first revisit lower levels of support.
CasiTrades’ Technical Warning
Analyst CasiTrades has pointed out that XRP’s latest rebound appears corrective — forming an ABC structure — rather than the stronger five‑wave impulsive move traders typically look for at the start of a breakout.
Compounding this is a bearish divergence on the 4‑hour Relative Strength Index (RSI), where price has tested higher levels but momentum has failed to confirm. According to Casi, this pattern raises the likelihood of further downside before XRP can mount a sustainable push above major resistance.
🚨XRP Bearish Divergences Hint at Lower Supports Before the Break! 🚨
XRP has shown SOME momentum off the black trendline I highlighted last week… The respect of this level is encouraging, but we’re not in the clear yet!! Price hasn’t broken above the critical $3 resistance.… pic.twitter.com/UcrK3FbIDF
— CasiTrades 🔥 (September 29, 2025)
Current Market Position
XRP is trading around $2.86 as of report time, hovering just below the $3.00 barrier that has repeatedly capped upside attempts. This places the asset in a delicate spot: close enough to resistance to spark optimism, yet vulnerable to renewed selling pressure if momentum falters.
Traders are closely monitoring XRP for a decisive move that will indicate whether it’s poised for a breakout or needs to test lower support levels.
Key Supports and Invalidation Levels
The support structure remains well‑defined. The first level to watch is $2.79, corresponding to the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement, followed by $2.58 at the 0.618 retracement. If price holds these zones, the broader bullish outlook remains intact, with potential for a much larger move higher.
However, if XRP breaks decisively below $2.58, that would undermine the bullish market structure and force analysts to reconsider the wave count. In this scenario, expectations for a near‑term breakout would be invalidated.
Interpreting Momentum Indicators
The bearish divergence on the 4‑hour RSI highlights weakening momentum despite price testing higher ranges. On the 1‑hour chart, the RSI is currently testing its own support trendline, leaving room for short‑term bounces.
Until momentum aligns with price action on higher timeframes, upside moves will likely remain capped. For a breakout to be convincing, XRP needs a strong push through resistance levels at $3.00 and then $3.25, backed by higher trading volume.
The Broader Market Connection
XRP’s trajectory will also depend on Bitcoin’s performance. Historically, strength in Bitcoin often clears the path for altcoin rallies, while Bitcoin’s weakness can drag on market sentiment and lead to deeper support tests.
Analysts stress the importance of monitoring Bitcoin alongside XRP’s momentum signals, as alignment between the two could mark the turning point for XRP’s long‑anticipated breakout.
Final Outlook
CasiTrades’ analysis highlights both the promise and the risk in XRP’s current setup. The supports at $2.79 and $2.58 remain critical to maintaining a bullish structure. A clean break above $3.00 and $3.25 would confirm that XRP has entered the next leg of its rally, potentially unlocking a true Wave 3 advance.
Until then, caution remains warranted: bearish divergences suggest the market may need one more downside test before the breakout finally arrives.
Disclaimer: This content is meant to inform and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed in this article may include the author’s personal opinions and do not represent Times Tabloid’s opinion. Readers are urged to do in‑depth research before making any investment decisions. Any action taken by the reader is strictly at their own risk. Times Tabloid is not responsible for any financial losses.