XRP Market Analysis: Key Observations from Glassnode
Blockchain analytics firm Glassnode has reported that XRP's current market structure bears a striking resemblance to its configuration in February 2022. This observation comes as short-term buyers are accumulating XRP below the realized price of the 6-to-12 million holder cohort. The analytics firm highlights that the $2 mark remains a key stress zone for the cryptocurrency.
Glassnode's analysis indicates that psychological pressure is building on earlier buyers as the consolidation period extends. Short-term wallets, defined as those active within the one-week to one-month window, are accumulating assets below the realized price of the 6-month to 12-month holder cohort. This dynamic sets up overhead liquidity, as holders who are currently underwater may sell into rallies to break even.
Analysis of Cost Basis and Holder Behavior
The firm's report emphasizes the significance of this cost-basis structure, noting that cohorts typically exhibit different behaviors when the spot price revisits their realized price. When the spot price trades below a cohort's realized price, it signifies that the group is, on average, experiencing losses. A subsequent market rally towards that level can unlock supply as these holders aim to recover their investment, thereby creating overhead liquidity that can impede further price appreciation until it is absorbed.
Glassnode's "Realized Price by Age" chart, which utilizes a short moving average, illustrates the realized prices of different cohorts against the current spot price. The chart reveals a noticeable gap between the cost bases of shorter-term holders and those in the six-to-12-month band during the recent period of consolidation. This pattern closely mirrors the market conditions observed in February 2022, according to Glassnode.
Identifying Key Psychological and Behavioral Zones
The analytics firm also referenced a previous post from November 24, 2025, which identified a significant psychological price level. This level has been a focal point for cohort stress, as evidenced by transaction flows. Since the beginning of 2025, repeated retests of this particular price zone have resulted in substantial weekly losses, indicating that a considerable number of holders have been exiting their positions at a loss as the price revisits this area.
Glassnode's estimates of realized losses suggest that this identified level is more than just a technical charting point; it represents a behavioral zone where spending decisions are notably altered. This zone is characterized by potential capitulation or forced de-risking activities.
Historical Context: XRP in February 2022
Looking back at historical data, XRP experienced a sharp round-trip pattern in February 2022. Following a decline to an early-February low, the digital asset saw a rally to its monthly peak. However, the latter half of the month witnessed a reversal, coinciding with an increase in macro risk. This late-month decline was further influenced by the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the invasion on February 24, which broadly impacted risk assets. This event pushed major cryptocurrencies lower intraday, reflecting a general risk-off sentiment across the crypto market, Glassnode noted.