XRP ETF Boom: Analyst Predicts $168 XRP Based on This Model

Growing attention around recently launched XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has prompted new discussions about how institutional capital could influence the asset’s long-term value.

The introduction of Canary Capital’s XRPC and Bitwise's XRP funds has revived debate on XRP’s ability to attract sustained inflows. In addition, Grayscale is set to introduce its own product, GXRP, adding to the rising interest in how these vehicles may affect market dynamics.

In response to this momentum, market analyst Zach Rector released a detailed examination of how ETF participation could influence XRP’s price trajectory over the next five years. His analysis relies on capital-flow records from Bitcoin’s ETF cycle and applies comparable frameworks to XRP.

Review of Bitcoin ETF Activity

Rector began by evaluating the inflow and outflow patterns associated with Bitcoin during its ETF phase. Based on his findings, spot Bitcoin ETFs gathered $62.25 billion between January 11, 2024, when these products debuted, and October 10, 2025, when Bitcoin reached the peak of its cycle.

He compared this to centralized-exchange data and calculated $24.31 billion in outflows from January 1, 2024, to October 12, 2025. According to his assessment, these outflows likely reflect capital leaving Bitcoin rather than coins shifting to non-exchange storage, although he noted that this cannot be confirmed with absolute certainty.

When subtracting the outflows from the ETF inflows, he identified roughly $37.94 billion in net new capital entering the Bitcoin market. Rector suggested that this flow supported Bitcoin’s move above the $100,000 mark and contributed to its record valuation during the period.

He then evaluated Bitcoin’s market-cap change relative to the net inflow. After the early decline in 2024, Bitcoin’s market capitalization fell to $756 billion and later rose to approximately $2.5 trillion by October 2025. This represented an increase of about $1.76 trillion. From this, he calculated a market-cap multiplier of roughly 46 times the net capital that entered through ETFs.

Applying the Framework to XRP

Rector next applied the same methodology to XRP. He referenced data indicating that, in the week ending November 16, 2025, XRP experienced $456 million in outflows. Compared with Bitcoin’s multi-billion-dollar weekly outflows, he concluded that XRP currently shows far lower capital movement, which could make it more responsive to inflows on a relative basis.

Using XRP’s price of $1.95, its circulating supply of 60.25 billion tokens, and a market value of $117.5 billion, he presented several scenarios based on multipliers of 50X, 100X, and 200X.

Under the 50X model, XRP would reach approximately $6 with $5 billion in inflows, around $10 with $10 billion, and near $43 with $50 billion. Under the 100X model, $5 billion in inflows corresponds with a potential $10 valuation, $20 billion with about $35, and $50 billion with roughly $84.

Rector then reviewed a 200X scenario, noting that XRP has historically shown elevated multipliers during high-volatility periods. In this case, $5 billion in inflows aligns with a projected $18 price, $10 billion with roughly $35, and $20 billion with an estimated $68.

In addition, $30 billion could support a price close to $101, while $50 billion corresponds with a valuation near $168.

Rector highlighted that Bitcoin accumulated $50 billion in ETF inflows within less than two years, and he stated that XRP could potentially attract comparable levels of capital over a longer timeline.

He referenced external expectations, including JPMorgan’s estimate of $4–8 billion in inflows and Canary Capital’s projection of $5–10 billion during the initial month of trading. Despite outlining these scenarios, Rector emphasized that he was not issuing price forecasts, but rather presenting data-driven models based on available information.