The recent debut of the first U.S. spot XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) has reignited discussions about the potential long-term influence of sustained ETF inflows on XRP's price. The launch of the Canary Capital XRP ETF (XRPC) demonstrated significant market interest, recording over $58 million in trading volume and attracting approximately $245 million in net inflows on its inaugural trading day. This strong performance has amplified market anticipation for additional XRP ETF launches from several prominent issuers.
Market Expectations for Upcoming XRP ETFs
Following the introduction of XRPC, the market's attention has now turned to the six remaining spot XRP ETFs that are slated for their upcoming market debuts. Major firms, including Grayscale, 21Shares, Franklin Templeton, and Bitwise, are among the issuers preparing to enter this burgeoning market.
If these upcoming products garner even a fraction of the demand witnessed by XRPC's initial performance, they could collectively introduce a substantial amount of new capital into the XRP market.
Hypothetically, if each of the remaining six funds were to attract half of XRPC’s opening-day inflows, the combined capital entering the market could surpass $700 million in their initial trading sessions alone.
While such precise symmetry is unlikely due to variations in investor preferences, issuer reputations, and the timing of launches, the potential for significant inflows has spurred speculative modeling regarding how prolonged investment could affect XRP's valuation.
To provide a more focused assessment, this analysis explores a scenario where all seven spot ETFs collectively receive $600 million in net inflows each month for a period of one year.
Although this projected monthly inflow figure exceeds XRPC’s initial performance, it remains below the $10 billion that Canary Capital’s CEO anticipated could enter these products within their first month. Under the assumed conditions, 12 months of $600 million monthly inflows would accumulate to a total of $7.2 billion.
Projected Effects on XRP’s Valuation
Quantifying the precise impact of ETF inflows on market capitalization is complex, as inflows do not directly translate into price appreciation. A multitude of factors, including liquidity conditions, macroeconomic influences, and sell-side activity, can modulate the relationship between inflows and realized market value.
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To establish a conservative approximation, this analysis employs a 100x inflow multiplier. This framework is sometimes utilized in digital asset modeling to estimate the broader economic impact of regulated investment products.
Applying this multiplier to the simulated $7.2 billion in total inflows generates a hypothetical market capitalization increase of $720 billion. Considering XRP’s current valuation of approximately $135 billion, the combined figure would reach roughly $857 billion.
With an estimated circulating supply of around 60 billion tokens, this projected market capitalization suggests a potential price level of approximately $14.20 per XRP.
Context From Ethereum's ETF Inflow History
While this model presents an optimistic projection, historical data indicates that substantial ETF inflows do not inherently guarantee price appreciation. Between November 2024 and October 2025, Ethereum-based ETFs experienced only one month of net outflows. Over this 12-month period, these products collectively accumulated net inflows of approximately $14.7 billion.
Despite these considerable inflows, Ethereum did not experience a sustained price increase due to broader market pressures and prevailing supply-side dynamics. This example underscores that large inflows alone may not be sufficient to drive consistent upward price movements.
In conclusion, while the scenario of $600 million in monthly inflows is theoretically plausible and has precedent in other cryptocurrency ETF markets, its direct effect on XRP's price would be contingent upon numerous external conditions. ETF demand represents just one of several factors influencing long-term price behavior, and actual market outcomes may diverge significantly from modeled projections.