The potential approval of several XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs) this October has sparked considerable optimism within the crypto community. With major asset managers such as Grayscale, Canary Capital, 21Shares, and Bitwise awaiting regulatory clearance, expectations are rising for how these funds could affect XRP’s market performance.
Revised Forecast from Canary Capital’s CEO
Steve McClurg, Chief Executive Officer of Canary Capital, recently updated his expectations for the launch of XRP ETFs. Earlier this year, he predicted approximately $5 billion in inflows during their first month of trading. However, during a recent appearance on the Paul Barron Network, McClurg stated that the initial projection may have been conservative.
He clarified that while his previous estimate remains valid, inflows could potentially reach $10 billion in the same period. McClurg described this figure as achievable given the growing enthusiasm surrounding XRP ETFs and the current appetite for digital asset investment products.
During the discussion, host Paul Barron noted that inflows of such magnitude could rank the XRP ETFs among the highest‑performing launches in ETF history. McClurg agreed, adding that if this level of capital enters the market, the funds could easily be listed among the top 20 ETF debuts, and possibly among the top 10.
Drawing from his own experience launching Bitcoin futures ETFs in a previous role, McClurg explained that those products recorded over $1 billion in their first day of trading. He described a $10 billion target for XRP ETFs as a realistic and attainable goal based on that precedent.
Potential Market Reaction if $10 Billion Enters XRP ETFs
If XRP ETFs were to secure $10 billion in inflows during their first month, analysts say the price implications could be substantial. The reason lies in the inflow‑to‑market‑cap multiplier, an observed relationship in which each dollar of net inflow into XRP often increases its total market capitalization by a much larger factor.
In May, market researcher Dom analyzed XRP’s trading behaviour and observed that $61 million in inflows had previously expanded XRP’s market capitalization by roughly $16.6 billion. This indicated a multiplier effect of around 272 times.
For a conservative analysis, even assuming a multiplier only one‑fifth as strong, approximately 54 times, XRP would still experience major valuation growth. Based on that ratio, $10 billion of ETF inflows could elevate XRP’s market capitalization by approximately $540 billion.
Price Projections Based on the Multiplier
At present, XRP holds a market capitalization of $180 billion and trades at around $3 per token. If the market value were to increase by an additional $540 billion as a result of ETF inflows, the total capitalization would rise to about $720 billion. With an estimated circulating supply of 60 billion tokens, this would place XRP’s potential price at roughly $12 within the first month after the ETFs launch.
While the forecast depends on several assumptions, including the persistence of the multiplier effect and the full realization of $10 billion in inflows, analysts emphasize that this is not an unrealistic scenario. Historically, XRP’s price movements have demonstrated higher multipliers during periods of increased liquidity and institutional activity.
If the funds attract the investor attention anticipated by Canary Capital’s CEO, XRP could experience one of its most significant upward movements in recent years, positioning it as one of the top‑performing digital assets following ETF approval.
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