The possibility of Ripple reducing the XRP escrow by a significant percentage has been a recurring topic among community members. Many investors believe that a supply cut could potentially drive the token’s value higher, while others question whether such an event would produce any measurable market impact.
Currently, XRP’s total supply stands at 99.9 billion tokens, with approximately 60 billion in circulation and 35 billion locked in escrow under Ripple’s control. The escrow system was created to release XRP into the market gradually, ensuring a predictable supply and limiting excessive liquidity.
However, some community members argue that the large reserve continues to create uncertainty and concerns.
Evaluating a Hypothetical Supply Reduction
To better understand the potential outcome, Google’s Gemini model was asked to simulate a scenario in which Ripple removes 20% of XRP’s total supply through token burns. The model emphasized that the market response to such a move would ultimately depend on broader factors, including investor sentiment, adoption trends, and regulatory clarity.
Under this theoretical case, a 20% reduction would eliminate roughly 19.98 billion XRP, decreasing the total supply to about 79.92 billion tokens. If this burn were applied solely to the escrow holdings, Ripple’s reserve would shrink from 35 billion to about 15 billion XRP, while the circulating supply would remain constant at 60 billion tokens.
Short-Term Versus Long-Term Effects
According to Gemini’s analysis, the immediate market effect of such a burn would likely be limited because no change would occur in the number of tokens currently traded. However, reducing the future available supply could create favorable long-term dynamics.
If market demand for XRP remains steady or grows, a smaller total supply might apply upward pressure on the asset’s valuation over time.
Gemini explained that similar patterns have been observed in traditional asset markets, where supply reductions can enhance value provided there is consistent or rising demand. Yet, it also noted that macroeconomic factors, competition among blockchain networks, and investor confidence would heavily influence the outcome.
Modeling a Bullish Outcome
Gemini further developed a theoretical “high-optimism” case to demonstrate potential price effects under ideal market conditions. This model assumes several supportive factors, sustained adoption of the XRP Ledger, favorable regulatory developments, and broad investor enthusiasm following the burn.
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In this scenario, Gemini estimated XRP’s total market capitalization could rise to approximately $4 trillion, representing nearly a 28-fold increase over its current valuation of about $144 billion.
Based on a circulating supply of 60 billion XRP, this would translate to an indicative price near $66.67 per token, an increase of over 2,600% from the current price level of around $2.53.
Gemini emphasized that these figures are theoretical calculations meant to illustrate potential outcomes rather than actual forecasts. The platform noted that market reactions to supply burns are unpredictable and depend on sentiment and adoption momentum.
Supporting this caution, Ripple’s Chief Technology Officer David Schwartz previously commented that reducing the total supply might not necessarily raise the token’s price. He referred to the Stellar (XLM) supply burn in 2019, which had little lasting impact on market valuation.
While a 20% reduction of Ripple’s escrow could theoretically strengthen XRP’s long-term outlook by lowering available supply, the actual effect would depend on demand-side factors, overall market conditions, and investor behavior.
The hypothetical price of $66.67 represents an optimistic case under perfect circumstances rather than a guaranteed projection.
Ultimately, analysts agree that although supply mechanics are important, the key drivers of XRP’s value will remain adoption, real-world utility, and broader confidence in the asset’s role within the digital payments ecosystem.