XRP Price Structure Mirrors February 2022. Here’s What Could Happen Next

XRP is exhibiting structural signals that are capturing market attention. Subtle shifts between short-term and long-term holder behavior suggest heightened volatility ahead. Historical patterns indicate that periods of latent pressure can precede notable price moves, making careful analysis essential for traders.

This perspective gained attention after Coin Bureau shared a post on X analyzing XRP’s realized price structure using Glassnode metrics. The analysis highlights a critical dynamic: short-term holders are accumulating below long-term holders’ cost bases. Coin Bureau notes that this setup mirrors February 2022, a period that preceded a roughly 20% drawdown.

Short-Term Holders Accumulating Below Long-Term Costs

The primary observation centers on new XRP buyers acquiring tokens below the average cost of long-term holders. When short-term accumulation occurs under long-term positions, an imbalance emerges. Long-term holders, who dominate volume and influence, may react defensively if the price declines.

In February 2022, this structure preceded a sharp drop from $0.90 to $0.70. Converging holder age bands increased pressure on top buyers, creating conditions where minor negative catalysts triggered rapid selling. Today, a similar pattern suggests that XRP could face comparable near-term stress if markets turn against the short-term cohort.

Realized Price Trends Indicate Potential Downside

Glassnode’s realized price chart highlights the growing risk. As aggregated realized price approaches or falls below spot levels, long-term holders see unrealized gains erode. Historically, this heightens the probability of sell pressure during stress events.

Short-term holders accumulating at lower levels intensify this dynamic. When market sentiment shifts, these newly acquired positions may be the first to liquidate, adding downward momentum. Technical observers interpret these converging factors as a signal to prepare for potential corrections.

Market Implications for Traders

XRP’s current structure suggests caution. Traders should recognize that accumulation patterns alone do not guarantee a sell-off, but they indicate elevated risk. Monitoring trend confirmation, support levels, and trading volumes will be critical in anticipating price behavior.

While XRP’s adoption, liquidity, and fundamentals remain strong, short-term technical signals highlight vulnerability. Understanding the interplay between short-term accumulation and long-term cost bases equips traders with a framework to anticipate volatility and manage risk. Historical parallels, like February 2022, demonstrate that structural setups often precede actionable market moves.

XRP now sits at a junction where technical observation and strategic planning may determine whether the market sustains momentum or faces temporary retracement.