Key Elliott Wave Analysis for XRP
Top Elliott Wave specialist More Crypto Online (@Morecryptoonl) has provided a detailed roadmap for XRP, asserting that the current price dip is merely a standard Wave 4 correction within a larger five-wave impulse that commenced in 2023. In his analysis dated November 29, 2025, he emphasized that XRP's price has consistently respected the critical micro-structure zone situated between $2.07 and $2.18 USD. He stated, "The microstructure is still messy, but the higher-timeframe count has not changed. As long as we stay above the 26th November low at ~$2.14 (Wave 4), the triangle or complex correction is still valid."
His accompanying long-term chart illustrates XRP tracing a textbook five-wave advance from its 2022 bear-market low. Wave 3 concluded near $3.40 earlier this year, and the subsequent pullback has remained significantly above the Wave 4 invalidation zone. Based on standard Fibonacci relationships, the projected target for Wave 4 falls between $2.05–$2.18, which is precisely where buyers have re-entered the market repeatedly this week.
Critical Price Levels and Potential Outcomes
The upcoming days are pivotal, presenting a binary scenario for XRP's price action. If bullish momentum prevails and buyers successfully defend the $2.07 support level, followed by a swift reclaim of $2.60, Wave 5 is expected to initiate. This would set initial targets ranging from $6–$8, with a potential extended target reaching $14, which represents a 1.618 multiple of the Wave 1–3 measured move. Conversely, a weekly close below $2.07 would breach the established higher-low sequence, reclassifying the current upward movement as a corrective ABC rally. Such a development would likely trigger a significant downturn, pushing the price towards $1.50 or even lower.
On-Chain Metrics and Market Sentiment
Current on-chain metrics suggest a bullish outlook for XRP. Ripple's escrow releases are proceeding as scheduled, daily active addresses are showing an upward trend, and the supply held on exchanges continues to decrease, indicating increased accumulation by institutional investors through over-the-counter trades. Concurrently, perpetual funding rates have turned negative, signaling that a substantial portion of the market is heavily short. This sentiment is often seen as a precursor to an explosive short squeeze, especially when Wave 5 ignition occurs. For the immediate future, the primary focus for XRP holders is the $2.07 price level. Holding this support maintains the potential for double-digit prices, while a break below it would grant full control to bearish forces heading into 2026.