XRP Whales in Tense Truce: Sideline Stasis Signals Ripple’s $3 Surge

On-Chain Analysis Reveals Whale Restraint Amidst Price Gains

Ripple’s XRP, a prominent player in cross-border payments and a subject of ongoing regulatory scrutiny, is currently experiencing a period of unusual quietude on-chain. On October 20, 2025, technical analyst Ali Martinez, known on Twitter as @ali_charts, highlighted a notable trend: "XRP whales have stayed on the sidelines! No major buying or selling activity in the past two weeks." His accompanying chart illustrates a distinct lack of significant whale transactions against XRP's price movements, suggesting a state of watchful waiting rather than active participation.

Despite this on-chain calm, XRP is trading at $2.461, marking a 5.04% increase over the past day. The cryptocurrency has seen substantial trading volume, reaching $3.84 billion, and its market capitalization has climbed to $147.6 billion. This positions XRP firmly within the top five cryptocurrencies, even as the broader crypto market shows a 2% rebound to $3.3 trillion.

The current period of reduced whale activity follows a volatile October. On-chain data from Santiment indicates that whales offloaded 2.23 billion XRP from the early month's lows. However, this trend has been counteracted by a recent positive shift in cumulative spot inflows, which have reached $9 million in the last 48 hours, contributing to the current price surge from $2.36. This divergence between selling pressure and recent inflows presents a complex market picture.

Adding to the nuanced market sentiment, the number of whale wallets—addresses holding over 1 million XRP—has reached an all-time high of 4,200+. This suggests a sustained accumulation by larger holders, potentially operating below the radar of major transaction alerts. Furthermore, daily active addresses have surpassed 50,000, with transaction volume consistently around 1.2 million, demonstrating ongoing utility within Ripple's On-Demand Liquidity (ODL) network, which is distinct from the speculative trading seen in meme-driven altcoins.

Potential Catalysts and Technical Outlook for XRP

Several factors are poised to influence XRP's trajectory. A new $1 billion partnership for Ripple is reportedly targeting Fortune 500 companies, aiming to integrate XRPL into their payment systems and potentially process significant transaction volumes. In parallel, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is showing increased responsiveness to ETF filings from entities like Bitwise and 21Shares, particularly in the wake of Ripple's partial legal victory. Current market sentiment suggests a 65% probability of ETF approval by the end of the year.

Technically, XRP exhibits bullish signals. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 62, following a golden cross pattern. Immediate price resistance is observed around $2.65, with a potential target of $3 indicated by Fibonacci retracement levels if the price breaks through $2.80. While some analysts, like those at Changelly, predict a short-term dip to $2.36, the broader consensus remains optimistic. The average price prediction for XRP stands at $3.13 by 2030, with some outliers forecasting potential highs of $8, contingent on widespread adoption within enterprise payment solutions.

Martinez's observation of whale inactivity serves as a cautionary note against immediate speculative fervor. XRP has already achieved 20% year-to-date gains, starting the year at $2.05. The current pause in whale transactions might precede a more significant market move. However, the specter of a potential SEC appeal continues to loom, which could test lower support levels, possibly revisiting the $2.25 mark. For traders, this period of consolidation is critical, as XRP's fundamental utility in enterprise solutions positions it as a long-term contender, distinct from purely speculative assets. As Bitcoin approaches significant price milestones, the actions of major XRP holders could prove decisive.