When an asset’s monthly momentum indicator flashes an extreme reading, many investors reflexively brace for a crash. Yet, the current configuration of XRP’s monthly Relative Strength Index (RSI), as recently highlighted by analyst Egrag Crypto, argues XRP may not yet be at the beginning of a macro bear market. Instead, the token might be near the tail end of a bull-distribution phase.
What Is Monthly RSI and Why Overbought Matters
RSI, a momentum oscillator developed by J. Welles Wilder, gauges the speed and magnitude of recent price changes on a 0–100 scale. A reading above 70 often signals “overbought” conditions.
On a monthly chart, where trends evolve over years, even higher thresholds — like 80 or 90 — carry added weight. History shows that very high monthly RSI levels often precede major cycle tops.
In shorter timeframes, high RSI readings can persist without a crash. In prolonged bull phases, RSI may stay elevated for extended periods even if momentum eventually fades. That nuance is key for interpreting XRP now.
#XRP – The RSI Truth Nobody Wants to Face:
# #XRP Monthly RSI has only reached the 80 zone twice in its entire history:
1️⃣ 2017
• Tagged 80+
• Bearish cross
• Then the real bear market began
→ Only after RSI broke below 50
2️⃣ 2025
• We finally tagged 80 again
• Bearish… pic.twitter.com/6ehis5MhrW— EGRAG CRYPTO (@egragcrypto) November 26, 2025
What Egrag Crypto Observes for XRP
According to Egrag Crypto, XRP’s monthly RSI has entered the “80 zone” only rarely — notably in 2017 and again in 2025. In 2017, the RSI surge preceded a sharp bear market that only truly set in after momentum collapsed and RSI dropped below 50.
Today’s scenario is different. While XRP’s monthly RSI has once again touched the upper extremes, the indicator remains well above the 50-line.
That, according to Egrag Crypto, leaves open the possibility of further upward moves — a “late-stage bull distribution phase,” rather than a breakdown. Until RSI crosses below 50 on the monthly timeframe and stays there, the argument for a sustained macro bear remains unconfirmed.
In other words, the chart still allows room for one final leg up.
How This Fits the Wider Technical Context
The bullish camp’s view gains traction when we note that other technical signals align with a bullish continuation for XRP. Several analysts, including those relying on Egrag Crypto’s charting, see a recent breakout from a multi-year symmetrical triangle in XRP’s monthly chart. That structure is comparable to the one preceding the 2017 rally.
We are on X, follow us to connect with us :- @TimesTabloid1
— TimesTabloid (@TimesTabloid1) June 15, 2025
That pattern — tight price action over a long period, followed by a breakout — often precedes strong upward moves. In 2025, XRP has reportedly broken out of such a triangle, with some targets quoted as high as $6 as a medium-term Fibonacci projection.
Still, history tempers exuberance. High monthly RSI readings in 2017 were followed by a dramatic drawdown. That memory looms large for many long-term investors.
What This All Means — For Now
In calling attention to the peculiarities of XRP’s monthly RSI behavior, Egrag Crypto offers a nuanced take: yes, the market shows signs of overbought conditions — but not necessarily imminent collapse. The current signal isn’t a “sell everything now” alarm; rather, it may indicate a protracted distribution phase that could still allow for a final push upward.
That said, the path ahead is narrow. Full confirmation of a macro bear market for XRP would require a monthly RSI break below 50 — and the maintenance of that lower trend. Until that happens, the chart remains open to the possibility of one more bullish surge.
For traders and long-term holders alike, that uncertainty is as much a challenge as it is an opportunity. It demands both vigilance and discipline in position management.