XRP is moving through a decisive multi-month consolidation phase. Traders now watch this structure closely because it may define the asset’s next major trend. The cooldown follows last year’s strong breakout and now pushes price toward a key long-term technical level.
ChartNerd drew attention to this developing pattern as it gained traction online. The analyst identified a three-month pullback drifting toward the three-month 20-EMA. This structure guided XRP during earlier cycles, and it now shapes current market expectations. Many analysts believe the coming monthly closes will determine the strength of the next major move.
Technical Structure and Higher Timeframe Signals
The monthly chart shows steady movement within a controlled correction. Price continues to contract toward the multi-month EMA, which historically acts as a trend gauge for XRP. The structure remains bullish while the price holds above this EMA.
A decisive monthly close below the three-month 20-EMA would change that outlook. Traders now watch this interaction because it defines trend strength on higher timeframes.
$XRP: During the 2017 euphoric run, $XRP had a 3 month cool off period where it successfully came back towards its 3 month 20-EMA for a retest before a 25x move to the upside.
Fast forward to 2025, $XRP has witnessed the exact same set up. Huge breakout last year, and now a 3… pic.twitter.com/90agdld6Qp
Key Levels and Market Reactions
XRP faces resistance near the low $3 region after a strong rally last year. Support forms between $1.75 and $2.10, creating a stable cushion for buyers. The three-month 20-EMA sits near $1.20, making it the strongest structural benchmark on the chart.
XRP Price remains well above that level for now. The EMA rises slowly over time, giving bulls room to defend the broader trend.
ETF Inflows and Updated Liquidity Conditions
Recent spot XRP ETF activity has added fresh liquidity. Several issuers recorded strong inflows during their early sessions. These inflows have increased institutional participation and reduced available supply on exchanges.
The new buying interest helped stabilize short-term volatility during the recent pullback. ETF allocations now influence broader market sentiment and price behavior.
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Supply Conditions and On-Chain Observations
Exchange balances continue to drop as more holders move tokens off trading platforms. This trend signals reduced selling pressure across the market. Long-term holders now accumulate at steady rates, forming stronger demand bases.
These on-chain patterns increase the probability of sharp upside moves if fresh demand returns. Market sentiment remains cautious but supportive of higher prices.
Risk Conditions and Near-Term Expectations
The three-month 20-EMA remains the most important invalidation point. Traders must respect that level because it defines the long-term trend. The bullish structure survives while the price stays above the EMA.
A close below that level would signal extended consolidation or deeper retracement. XRP may still experience sharp swings as ETFs rebalance or as liquidity shifts.
Outlook and Structural Conclusion
XRP’s current structure blends a classic EMA retest with modern market conditions. ETF demand, reduced exchange supply, and strong on-chain behavior support a constructive outlook.
Traders now await the next monthly candle because it will confirm trend strength. The pattern remains bullish while XRP trades above the three-month 20-EMA near $1.20.