XRP continues to trade amid heightened market uncertainty, with analysts warning that additional downside risk cannot be ruled out despite signs that the broader bullish structure remains in place. While the asset has managed to stay above the psychologically important $2 level, technical analysis suggests that a deeper correction could still unfold under unfavorable conditions.
According to recent market assessments, XRP has already declined significantly from its prior cycle peak. Despite this pullback, analysts emphasize that the current phase does not necessarily indicate a breakdown of the long-term bullish trend. Instead, the focus has shifted to understanding how severe a downside move could become if bearish pressure intensifies.
Analyst Outlines Worst-Case Price Range
Crypto market analyst EGRAG Crypto addressed this scenario in a recent commentary where he deliberately approached XRP’s outlook from a defensive perspective. His analysis was designed to examine potential downside risk rather than predict an imminent reversal of the broader trend.
#XRP – The Nightmare Scenario vs. Conviction 💪: Today I’m wearing the #Bears hat briefly 😄. Not because I’m #Bearish, but to assess the worst-case scenario objectively. Long term, nothing is bearish in #XRP’s fundamentals or structure. Only HATERS stays negative, not… pic.twitter.com/4Nd0pGIFqY
— EGRAG CRYPTO (@egragcrypto) January 15, 2026
While maintaining confidence in XRP’s long-term fundamentals, he acknowledged that short-term volatility could still drive prices lower.
Under this framework, EGRAG identified a possible decline of between 31% and 47% from current levels as the most severe outcome within the existing market cycle. Should such a move materialize, XRP could temporarily trade within a price band ranging from approximately $1.20 to $1.40. He described this range as a stress scenario rather than a base expectation, stressing that it would represent an extreme test of market confidence rather than a structural failure.
Recent Performance and Market Positioning
XRP’s current position reflects mixed momentum. After reaching a cycle high of $3.66 in July 2025, the asset has since retraced by roughly 43.7%. The latter part of 2025 proved particularly challenging, with XRP closing the year down 11.54% following a weak fourth quarter.
Although a modest recovery of about 12.54% has occurred in early 2026, the price remains well below its previous peak. This uneven performance highlights XRP’s vulnerability to broader market sentiment, even as long-term adoption narratives continue to support optimistic projections.
Historical Drawdowns Provide Context
EGRAG’s downside estimates draw heavily from XRP’s historical behavior during previous market cycles. In earlier periods, XRP experienced corrections of similar magnitude before resuming upward movement.
For example, following the 2018 market peak, XRP declined by roughly 31% before eventually rebounding in the subsequent bull phase. A later cycle saw an even steeper drop of about 47%, coinciding with widespread market stress during 2022.
These historical precedents form the basis of the analyst’s view that a comparable retracement, while uncomfortable, would not be unprecedented. He noted that such outcomes would only be relevant if XRP’s current structure closely mirrors those earlier cycles, a theory that some market observers have already suggested.
Outlook Remains Constructive Despite Risks
Despite acknowledging the possibility of further declines, EGRAG reaffirmed his belief that XRP remains within a broader bullish cycle. He argued that macro-level indicators still support higher valuations over time, potentially reaching double-digit price levels once the current phase of consolidation resolves.
He also clarified that any decision to increase exposure during a downturn reflects his personal investment strategy and should not be interpreted as financial guidance. Investors, he cautioned, should base their decisions on independent analysis and risk tolerance rather than analyst conviction alone.
While near-term uncertainty persists, the prevailing view among bullish analysts is that XRP’s longer-term trajectory remains positive, even if the path forward includes additional volatility.