Periods of market uncertainty often draw attention to established patterns, and recent commentary from XRP enthusiast Zach Rector has brought one of those patterns back into focus. His breakdown of how assets typically behave when exchange-traded funds enter the market has prompted a range of reactions, as participants attempt to understand the current downturn and its implications on XRP. The discussion reflects an effort to determine whether the current XRP price volatility aligns with previous ETF-driven cycles or if new conditions are shaping a different outcome.
Here is the process
1. ETFs go live
2. Market Makers dump
3. ETFs soak up supply
4. The asset then pumps
Just look at the BTC 13 day “dump” after its ETFs followed by 51 days of a 90% rally.— Zach Rector (@ZachRector7) November 20, 2025
Rector’s Four-Step Sequence
Rector pointed to a familiar structure that has played out in previous ETF launches. His outline begins with the ETFs going live, which historically introduces a new source of structured market participation. Following this, he noted that market makers often initiate selling pressure, creating a temporary downturn. According to his framework, ETFs then gradually absorb the available supply, ultimately setting the stage for the asset to move upward once the initial imbalance stabilizes.
He referenced Bitcoin’s experience as the most recent example. After its ETFs launched, Bitcoin faced a 13-day decline before transitioning into a sustained period of growth. The subsequent 51-day rally produced a significant upward move of roughly 90%, illustrating how quickly momentum can shift once the market completes that early post-ETF adjustment period. Rector’s core point is that such patterns have precedents, and that short-term downturns following ETF approval do not necessarily indicate weakening fundamentals or a long-term reversal.
Community Reactions and Diverging Views
Not all observers agreed that the current environment would mirror previous cycles. An X user known as Ullr argued that the present situation differs because much of the crypto market remains closely tied to Bitcoin’s performance. His view suggests that the broader dependence on Bitcoin makes it less likely for assets to follow individual ETF-driven trajectories in the near term.
Matthew Giannini took a more moderate position, acknowledging that there may be truth to the outlined sequence but adding that the current downturn appears to extend beyond ETF dynamics. He described the situation as part of a larger global market issue, expressing hope that the recent decline represents a temporary setback rather than a coordinated reaction to ETF launches.
Another user, PowMan, focused on the emotional impact of the widespread downturn, noting that the entire market is in decline and that XRP is following the trend without showing resistance. He clarified that the movement does not alter his long-term strategy but acknowledged the discouraging nature of the present conditions.
The differing interpretations highlight a market still searching for clarity. Rector’s model provides a structured way to view the current price action, while responses from other participants underscore the complexity of today’s macro-environment. Whether the present decline aligns with previous ETF cycles or reflects broader pressures, the coming weeks will determine which perspective more accurately describes this phase of the market.